E_min: A First-Principles Thermochemical Descriptor for Predicting Molecular Synthesizability

Predicting the synthesizability of a new molecule remains an unsolved challenge that chemists have long tackled with heuristic approaches. Here, we report a new method for predicting synthesizability using a simple, yet accurate thermochemical descriptor. We introduce E_min, the energy difference between a molecule and its lowest energy constitutional isomer, as a synthesizability predictor that is accurate, physically meaningful, and first-principles based. We apply E_min to 134,000 molecules in the QM9 dataset and find that E_min is accurate when used alone and reduces incorrect predictions of "synthesizable" by up to 52% when used to augment commonly-used prediction methods. Our work illustrates how first-principles thermochemistry and heuristic approximations for molecular stability are complementary, opening a new direction for synthesizability prediction methods